Forecasting of heat load

For power production planning, knowledge of the expected heat load of the CHP plant, along with the forecasted demand for heat in the heating water and process steam for the whole calculation period, are required. The module calculates the demand for heat in the heating water and process steam for the following and six subsequent days (n+6).

 

The output parameters are forecasting demand for heat in the heating water, the heat in the process steam, and the power demand from medium voltage customers.

The basic inputs for heat load models is data from weekly weather forecasts provided by the relevant meteorological office. The other model inputs describe the current weather conditions and the current operation state of individual CHP plant facilities.

 

Time Week Number of days from the winter solstice within the heating season Ambient temperature Sun exposure Wind speed Humidity Atmospheric pressure	A one-customer forecast of heat in the process steam. Colours: green - measured value, blue - model output, red - value difference
Forecast of heat transferred to the heating water. Colours: green - measured value, blue - model output, red - value difference	Forecast of power sent to the MV grid customers. Colours: green - measured value, blue - model output, red - value difference

   

download brochure "Forecasting of Heat Load" (0,2 MB)